Market outlook

This morning’s price action in both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reinforces my view that this rally is vulnerable. While we’ve seen attempts to push higher, neither index is showing the volume expansion or broad participation needed to sustain upside. Rallies without strong volume confirmation tend to fade, and that’s the environment we’re operating in right now.

The Nasdaq, in particular, continues to show signs of exhaustion, with upside attempts being sold quickly rather than attracting momentum buyers. Growth and tech leadership remains inconsistent, which is a key red flag for any durable market rally. When the Nasdaq struggles to lead, broader market strength becomes difficult to maintain.

The S&P 500 is telling a similar story. Price remains extended near key levels, but follow-through has been weak, suggesting institutions are hesitant to add risk at these prices. Instead of aggressive accumulation, we’re seeing more defensive positioning and short-term trading behavior.

From a market structure perspective, sellers are still stepping in on strength across both indices. Until we see a meaningful increase in volume and decisive follow-through above resistance, the path of least resistance remains lower. In this type of setup, bears continue to control the tape, and further weakness and choppiness are likely over the coming days to weeks.

Given these conditions, this is not a market to press risk. I’m prioritizing capital preservation, keeping exposure light, and staying highly selective. Playing defense here until the Nasdaq and S&P 500 prove otherwise.

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Looking forward to your reply.

Best regards,

TML